What the Kiev supporters in the West and no one in Kiev themselves want to imagine, what is branded as taboo and produces toxic reactions among the media and politicians, is a scenario that, on sober reflection, seems increasingly likely:
Russia will prevail. Putin will win after a high tribut of blood. Russia will bitter sweet triomphed.
It will not (be able to) prevail militarily, but it will ultimately achieve its goals on a broad front. Demilitarisation of Ukraine. Prevention of NATO accession der Ukraine. State annexation of further Ukrainian, but former historical Russian territories. A change of government, and thus a more Russia-friendly course.
Why?
For many reasons.
And – admittedly – being right is sometimes the purest pleasure if the psychology is the deeper reason.
What I wrote in my article „TACITUS‘ ECHO. SELENSKYI’S DRAMA. A PROVOCATIVE PROPHECY.“ on 16 May (https://ingorimchudoba.com/2023/05/16/tacitus-echo-selenskyis-drama-eine-provokante-prophezeiung/), is proving more and more true.
The latent ingratitude of the Kyiv government towards its supporters in the „West“, born of the awareness that it can never repay what it has been given, as Tacitus once philosophised in exemplary fashion, is becoming increasingly difficult to cover up. On the one hand, this is understandable – the protagonists‘ sheer survival is at stake – but on the other hand, human nature in this context, especially not by proud Ukrainians who are steeped in overbording expectations, cannot be restrained. The truth finally breaks through.
Yes, the front is crumbling. This can already be seen in certain statements: Poland distancing itself (also because of the cheap Ukrainian grain ruining Polish farmers), Ben Wallace’s (defence minister of UK) remark „we are not Amazon“ in relation to ever more gigantic demands for arms deliveries, domestic in a lot of countries demands to the contrary for a correction of unconditional support for Kiev …
It is only a matter of time before support wanes, especially when Ukraine is practically less and less able to support itself, fails to achieve anything really decisive militarily in parallel, thus making a nonsense of its propaganda, and meanwhile two generations of men die in the fire. With all respect of the brave the soldiers …
Russia, on the other hand, only has to dig in, withstand the increasingly desperate offensive attempts of the Ukrainian army, occasionally attack Ukrainian cities (in this phase will also be no significant investments ), and wait … What the West not accept or believe … Russia can wait.
At some point, the blow away billions of euros in European budgets will become dramatically apparent and the question „How many billions more for occasionally recaptured villages that will then maybe be lost again?“ will become louder and louder and finally culminate in the ultimate demand to the Kiev address for a negotiated peace. Russia will then determine this – or will longer waiting …
One may or may not find this just, heretical, depending on one’s perspective, but it should not surprise anyone if this is exactly what happens.
All this has been foreseeable for a long time, but the Western media in particular, and with them a whole squad of know-it-all so-called experts and politicians, seem incapable of foreseeing three moves, let alone objectively accepting the foreseeable.
They, too, should ask themselves one day whether their ignorance of the realities, of Tacitus‘ wisdom, their blind acceptance of – understandable – Ukrainian propaganda, did not prolong the war and thus accept the death of even more soldiers. They will doing not, of course. Because they are incapable of self-criticism and ideologically polarised. They will cover the blood on their hands with the next foreseeable failure, such as the lies about climate change, LGBT nonsense, the next Corona wave or the fight against the right. Maybe someone will do them a favour and stage a coup somewhere in Africa. And Trump will also become an issue again … May God have mercy on them.
Im Mahlstrom 